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Europe: political turmoil in the EU continues into the new year

Germany: after 16 years of relatively stable leadership under Angela Merkel and the center-right CDU, the subsequent coalition of the center-left SPD (led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz), the Greens, and the economically liberal FDP proved incredibly unpopular in its three years in power, with internal divisions causing hurdles in enacting policy. Common criticisms included unpopular immigration policy, mismanagement of the energy crisis, changes to Germany’s military strategy, worsening infrastructure, and economic uncertainty, among others. The coalition collapsed in November 2024, Scholz lost a confidence vote in December, and the election was moved up from September to February 2025.

Turnout in 2025's election was 84 percent; the highest since reunification. The results were relatively close to pre-election polling, but still sent shockwaves throughout the country and beyond. As predicted, the CDU won the most votes and will lead the new government, with Friedrich Merz as Chancellor. Merz was Merkel’s rival for party leadership in the early 2000s, but was sidelined during her tenure, before he returned to politics in 2021 and became party leader in 2022. The major headline, however, was the strong performance of Alternative for Germany (AfD), taking 21 percent of the vote. This party is extremely divisive in Germany and ran on a broadly anti-immigrant, anti-Green, libertarian, and pro-Russia platform. The AfD is often criticized for its increasingly nationalist and far-right rhetoric, and several members have had links to neo-Nazi organizations or have used banned Nazi-era slogans, although party leadership often rejects this connection. A map of election results shows a clear political divide that aligns with Germany's Cold War partition: in the former-East (excluding Berlin), the AfD was the most popular party in 47 of 48 constituencies, but won only two of the West's 239 constituencies. Nonetheless, all major parties refused to work with the AfD in parliament, and in April, the CDU formed a government with the SPD, the third-largest party, in a so-called "grand coalition". The SPD record its lowest vote share in almost 150 years, but benefitted from the failure of the FDP and the new BSW parties to cross the five percent threshold to enter parliament (the BSW received 4.97 percent), giving the SPD a higher share of seats. The largest surprise in this election was perhaps the performance of The Left party, who re-entered parliament after a surge in support saw them become the most popular party among young voters.

Romania: May saw a repeat of November’s annulled presidential election, which created a political crisis in its wake. The first round had returned a surprise result, where independent Călin Georgescu emerged as the most popular candidate. Georgescu was relatively unknown before the election, however, a large social media campaign, particularly on TikTok, saw his popularity surge from October and his right-wing, conservative campaign was popular among disillusioned voters. As no candidate secured a majority, a runoff was scheduled between Georgescu and Elena Lasconi of the more centrist, liberal USR Party, but the Constitutional Court annulled the results in December, alleging that Georgescu’s campaign was coordinated and paid for by Russia. This was condemned as politically motivated and undemocratic by many, including Lasconi, who was expected to win the runoff. A new election was called for May, and Georgescu's lead in the polls grew, however, he was investigated for several offenses in February, including promoting fascism and false information, and the electoral authority banned him from running in March. His removal deepened the constitutional crisis, opening a debate as to whether these events are a sign of strength or weakness in Romanian democracy. Georgescu threw his support behind the far-right AUR Party's George Simion, who was the most popular candidate in 2025's first round, winning 41 percent of the vote. He faced the Mayor of Bucharest, Nicușor Dan, in the runoff - despite only winning 21 percent of the vote in the first round, Dan then won the second round with 54 percent of the vote, while Simion was only able to increase his margin by five percent. Dan's pro-Western and pro-EU stance was in stark contrast to Simion's, and may prove very important in determining the EU and NATO's attitudes to the war in Ukraine in the coming months or years.

Elsewhere in Europe: Portugal held its third election in four years, after the prime minister's questionable business dealings led to the government losing a vote of confidence. May's election saw the prime minister and his party hold on to power, even increasing their seat count, while the far-right CHEGA Party also made significant gains at the expense of the Socialist Party. Also in May, the presidential election in Poland was extremely close, with a winning margin of just 1.8 percent. The more progressive major candidate, Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, won the most votes after the first round of voting, but the next three most-popular candidates were more right-wing, with combined vote share of 50.6 percent combined. The second round saw right-wing voters rally behind Karol Nawrocki, who defeated Trzaskowski with 50.9 percent of the vote. To the north, politics in Norway was thrown into crisis in January when the ruling coalition fell apart, but the return to politics of former-PM Jens Stoltenberg saw a significant shift in the polls - the election is set for September 8. In Czechia, the right-wing ANO 2011 party remain the most popular in the country, and current projections suggest an outright parliamentary majority is on the cards in October's election. Finally, in Croatia, former-PM Zoran Milanović was re-elected as President in January.

Americas: U.S.-Canada trade war reshapes what was a one-sided race

Canada: after almost a decade in office, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation in January 2025. Although Trudeau led the Liberal Party to victory in the last three elections, his approval ratings tanked throughout 2024 due to recurring ethics scandals and his initial response to Trump’s proposed 25 percent tariffs on Canadian imports, as well as the compounding effect of inflation and economic stagnation that has burdened incumbents across the globe. Through 2024, the Conservative Party had held a 10-15 percent lead in the polls, rising to 25 percent in December. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre - a young, career politician often described as a libertarian and right-wing populist, with a confrontational style of communication - was on course to become Canada's next PM, however, by March 2025, the Liberals' fortunes had suddenly reversed.

This change came for several reasons. Firstly, a landslide victory in the Liberal leadership election saw Mark Carney named as new party leader and Prime Minister. Carney was a high-profile economist and popular among voters, particularly for his role in navigating Canada's central bank through the 2008 financial crisis, where Canada outperformed most other advanced economies, and he also headed Britain's central bank through Brexit. He was a political outsider, offering a new choice for many dissatisfied voters, particularly those unhappy with Trudeau or the New Democratic Party. Secondly, worsening relations with the U.S., traditionally Canada's closest ally and trade partner, completely changed the course of the election. The new Trump administration repeatedly called for Canada to forfeit sovereignty and become its 51st state, while a trade war quickly developed between the two in the wake of Trump's new tariff policy. Public sentiment towards the U.S. was at an all-time low, and this became the dominant issue in the election, sidelining popular Conservative issues such as immigration and housing. On April 28, The Liberals won the election, with the highest share of the popular vote since 1984, but just four seats shy of a parliamentary majority - it will now continue to rule as a minority government. The Conservatives did improve their seat count and popular vote share, but the election was considered a significant loss given projections from just four months before, with Piere Poilievre even losing the parliamentary seat he had held since 2004. The biggest losers were perhaps other parties; the Bloc Québécois, NDP, and Greens, who all lost a significant share of their seats, showing how much of a single-issue, two-party race this election had become.

Ecuador: 2023's snap election in Ecuador was one of the most tumultuous in recent years, even involving the assassination of a leading candidate. The close election was ultimately won by outsider Daniel Noboa of the National Democratic Action (ADN), who defeated Luisa González of the Citizen Revolution Movement (RC). Noboa comes from a wealthy family involved in banana exports, and at 33 years old was the youngest elected leader in the world. He is generally described as business-orientated and somewhere in the center of the political spectrum. However, a strong response to Ecuador’s growing security crisis resulted in a 60-day state of emergency in early 2024 that saw outbreaks of violence and prison riots across the country, with thousands arrested, and this caused some to draw parallels with the more autocratic policies of Nayib Bukele in El Salvador. Initial reports suggest this crackdown was effective in reducing Ecuador’s homicide rate, and Noboa was not accused of consolidating his power in the same way as Bukele, but the measure was still very divisive. The 2025 election took place in February and the results were incredibly close, with just a 0.2 percent difference in the popular vote between Noboa and González, while their parties each received 66 and 67 seats respectively. The election then went to a second round in April, which was won by Noboa by an 11 percent margin. The discrepancy in opinion polling and both rounds' results saw González accuse Noboa of election fraud, although her calls for a recount did not materialize.

Elsewhere across Latin America and the Caribbean: Chile is guaranteed to elect a new president by November, while Bolivia may do the same; Argentina will hold its first legislative elections under Milei’s presidency, while Venezuela’s parliamentary election saw President Nicolás Maduro’s United Socialist Party win 253 out of 285 seats, following the controversial presidential election of 2024. In the Caribbean, Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago are just some of the countries holding general elections.

Asia-Pacific: Australia’s tight race ends in a landslide

Australia: throughout 2024, the Liberal-National Coalition, who led the country from 2013 to 2022, held a consistent 5-10 point lead in the polls. Yet, in the first four months of 2025, the incumbent Labour Party had narrowed the margin significantly and even had a small lead going into May’s election. Previously, dissatisfaction with the Labour government had been driven by economic and cost-of-living issues, but, by March, a plurality of Australians believed Labour to be in the best position to deal with recent economic challenges, while its choice for PM was much more popular. Similar to Canada, U.S. tariff policy and other actions of the new Trump administration was a decisive factor in economic issues, and the backlash to Trump’s tariffs resulted in a global decline in support for conservative politics, which was felt in Australia. In other issues, the Labor party was stronger in terms of healthcare, housing, and workers’ rights, while the Coalition performed better on topics such as the energy and mining sectors, crime, and immigration.

Although a close race was predicted, the Labour Party won 94 out of 150 seats in parliament, which is the joint-highest total in Australian political history. The Coalition won 15 fewer seats than in 2022, and its leader, Peter Dutton, lost the seat he had held since 2001. The Green Party also lost three of its four seats, meaning that no party outside of Labour or the Coalition now holds more than one seat, although independent candidates did win 10 seats for the second election in a row, with eight of these from the socially progressive but fiscally conservative Teal movement. Two weeks after the election, the Nationals and Liberals ended their 38 year coalition, although this decision was reversed one week later.

South Korea: President Yoon Suk Yeol declaration of martial law in early-December created a political crisis that would eventually lead to his impeachment, suspension, and arrest. In what many view as a self-coup, the president sought to seize power from the assembly, imprison several political opponents, and suspend the free press. The declaration was reversed in just six hours, but it caused violent clashes between the military and civilians, and its aftermath has seen several high-profile politicians resign or impeached (including Yoon's interim replacement). Yoon barricaded himself in his home for over a month, and it took two arrest attempts before Yoon surrendered to authorities in mid-January. Yoon’s removal from office by the Constitutional Court then led to a rare, snap presidential election in June.

The political crisis was the dominant issue of the election, but it was not the only one. The coup’s fallout led to infighting with Yoon’s former party, the People Power Party (PPP), including a party split on which candidate should be put forward. The DPK re-nominated Lee Jae Myung as their candidate, who lost 2022’s election by less than one percent – while the calamity within the PPP was to his benefit, Lee’s reputation still suffered due to a series of corruption and other legal scandals in recent years. Voters cited the economy as the most important issue, and U.S. tariffs again played a role, with the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) seen as being less-friendly with the U.S. than the PPP. Turnout in this election was its highest in almost 30 years, and the results showed a clear split along the east and west of the country, but Lee Jae Myung emerged as the decisive winner by an eight percent margin. Third party candidate Lee Jun-seok of the relatively new Reform Party also had an important impact, with the former-PPP leader taking over eight percent of the vote, with swell in support from young, conservative men.

Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific: in May, Singapore held its first election since Lee Hsien Loong’s resignation after 20 years as Prime Minister. His party, the People’s Action Party, maintained its supermajority in parliament, which it has held since independence in 1965, and Lawrence Wong won his first election since becoming Prime Minister. In Japan, elections for the upper house took place in July, with the LDP-Komeito coalition losing its ruling majority, and LDP achieving its lowest vote share in history. While LDP remains the largest party in both houses, the result was still considered a disaster, with some calls for Prime Minister Ishiba to resign. Following the Philippines’ midterm election in May, the first since last year’s fallout between the Marcos and Duterte dynasties, Lakas-CMD remains the largest party in the Senate and will continue to support President Marcos.

Rest of the world

2025 will see relatively few major elections in Africa’s most populous countries or largest economies; general or parliamentary elections are due later in the year in countries including Cameroon, Egypt, Malawi, and Tanzania. In the first half of the year, Africa’s most high-profile election was that of Gabon, which held its first election since a military coup in 2023 ended six decades of the Bongo family’s rule. The leader of the coup, Brice Oligui Nguema, won the election in a landslide, with over 90 percent of the vote.

In the Middle East, Lebanon’s years-long indirect presidential election concluded in January, putting forward commander of the armed forces, Joseph Aoun, as the country’s new president (while remaining in charge of the military). This was the first Lebanese election in decades without interference from the Assad regime in Syria, and also came against the backdrop of conflict with Israel and a severe economic crisis in Lebanon. In August, the transitional government in Syria will hold indirect elections to form a new parliament. The government has committed to holding direct nationwide elections in the future, but has ruled these out until at least 2028 as a new census, political institutions, and voting infrastructure are just some of the hurdles to be overcome before this would be feasible. Iraq will also hold parliamentary elections in November.