After years of a relatively stable ceasefire, the civil war in Syria escalated in late 2024. Within 10 days, the Islamist militia Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) quickly won the cities of Aleppo, Homs, and Hama, before advancing on Damascus; meanwhile, most other rebel groups broke their ceasefires and turned on the government, culminating in President Bashar al-Assad fleeing to Russia and his family’s 50-year rule coming to an end. However, Syria faces numerous challenges after more than a decade of fighting and with battles continuing in parts of the country. What explains the sudden fall of the Assad regime, what is the current situation in the country, and which consequences have come from the civil war?
The wider conflict in the Middle East caused the end of Bashar al-Assad
The escalation of the situation in Syria must be seen in context with the wider conflict in the
Middle East and the
Russia-Ukraine war. With Hezbollah weakened by an Israeli invasion into
Lebanon and its leader’s assassination, and Iran set back by airstrikes against Israel and its significant financial losses in regional conflicts, two of Assad’s most important backers were weakened and unable to lend support. Moreover, Russia, who holds air and naval bases in Syria, was unable and unwilling to support the falling regime as its resources were tied down in Ukraine. The fall of the Assad-regime substantially weakened the so-called Axis of Resistance, spearheaded by Iran and including the Iraqi government, the fallen Syrian government, Hezbollah, the
Houthi militia in Yemen, and Hamas in Palestine. This dealt a significant blow to the regional ambitions of Tehran and has allowed the potential realignment of Syria from Iran to Saudi Arabia.
The rise and fall of ISIS
The Syrian civil war erupted in 2011 after protests related to the Arab Spring escalated into an all-out war between the Assad regime and various opposing forces. In 2014, the
Islamic State emerged as a key player, seizing control of large parts of Eastern Syria, prompting the United States and allies to launch a counter-insurgency against the Islamists, supporting Kurdish militias with
airstrikes. In 2019, IS lost most of its territory. As a result, the number of fatalities killed in attacks by the Islamic State worldwide has
decreased in recent years, but the organization continues to pose a threat both in Syria and other parts of the world. The civil war entered a more stalemate phase after this, with the Idlib ceasefire securing a period of relative peace until the escalation in 2024.
Consequences of the civil war
The civil war has caused tremendous human suffering. It is estimated that there have been at least
200,000 civilian casualties since the beginning of the conflict in 2011 until 2023;
about 25,000 of these were children. As a result, millions of people have been forced to leave their homes. Some are
internally displaced, still living in Syria, while more than six million have fled to other countries, the
highest of any country in the world. Most have fled to neighboring countries with approximately 3.5 million living in
Turkey. Many have emigrated towards Europe, where many landed in Germany and Sweden, but after tighter border restrictions and a deal between Turkey and the EU, fewer refugees make it to Western Europe. Moreover, a UN-mission found that chemical weapons such as sarin gas, chlorine gas, and mustard agent were used by the Syrian government forces, especially after an attack by them on Ghouta in 2013.
The civil war as of 2025
Following the collapse of the Assad-regime, Syria faces a range of challenges. First, the country lies in ruins following more than a decade of fighting, with different militant groups operating in the country and fears of sectarian violence. Second, immediately after the fall of the Assad-regime, Israel began bombing Syrian air bases and chemical weapons facilities and sent troops into a demilitarized zone on the Golan heights, which it annexed in 1981. Third, the
Syrian National Army (SNA), backed by Turkey, is battling the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which Turkey sees as an ally of the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), deemed a terrorist organization by the Turkish government. Fourth, the Islamic State is still active in parts of Syria, with the United States supporting the SDF with airstrikes in battles against the terrorist organization. Over 1,000 IS-fighters are held in prisons controlled by the SDF, and experts fear that these may be able to flee if the SDF is forced out of its territory. However, Syria’s new transitional president and leader of the HTS, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has promised to seek peaceful relations with neighboring countries, assured the rights of minorities, and western countries have started to lift their sanctions against the country.
This text provides general information. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ assumes no
liability for the information given being complete or correct.
Due to varying update cycles, statistics can display more up-to-date
data than referenced in the text.
