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The Conservative Party of Canada held a consistent and widening lead over the Liberal Party from 2022-2024, with a margin of almost 30 percent in December 2024. However, a series of events in early 2025 saw this margin shrink sharply, with the Liberals even moving ahead in the polls by March and into April.

Several factors influenced this turnaround, particularly the resignation announcement of Prime Minister Trudeau in January 2025, who was a key source of the party's unpopularity. This was followed by the election of economist Mark Carney as party leader and new PM in March, which saw many former-Liberal supporters renew their support for the party, while there was also a shift of support away from the New Democratic Party (who had supported the last two ).

The other major issue in this period was the U.S. trade war with Canada and Mexico, as well as Trump's repeated claims that the U.S. should annex Canada. Many voters shifted support to the Liberals due to Mark Carney's history of navigating the Canadian Central Bank through the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the Bank of England through Brexit, as they believe him to be the best option for leader during an economic crisis. Additionally, many voters believe the Conservatives and its leader, Pierre Poilievre, to be too similar to the U.S. Republican Party and its leadership, which has hurt the party during a time of strained U.S.-Canada relations. Although the Conservatives and Poilievre have harshly criticized the Trump administration in recent months, their numbers still dropped by eight percent in the first quarter of 2025.

It should be noted that Canada uses a first-past-the-posts electoral system, where the party that wins the most seats in parliament can do so without winning the nationwide popular vote, as was the case in the elections of September 2021 and October 2019.