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The CDU is expected to win 208 seats in the German Parliament (Bundestag), based on provisional results from the German election held on February 23, 2025. Although this would make the CDU the biggest party, they would still have too few seats to form a government, and would therefore have to enter into a coalition with one or more of the other parties. While the AfD are predicted to win 152 seats, the CDU has already ruled out working with them, and would likely look to the SPD or Green Party to form a potential government. 

Economy and migration the main issues heading into election

When polled about what they thought were the most important issues facing Germany, the top two issues just before the election were the economy, and immigration / integration, selected by 43 percent, and 42 percent of respondents respectively. In the months after the 2021 election, the issue of energy supply and the climate was consistently seen as the most pressing issue, with this eventually overtaken by the War in Ukraine in February 2022. The issues of wages and prices was also seen  important issue throughout 2022 and 2023, although this has since subsided as wider concerns about the state of the German economy have overtaken it.

Possible coalitions for the next government

Barring a surprise collapse in support, the CDU are likely to head the next German government. What that will look like depends on how many parties can clear the five percent threshold and ultimately win seats in the German Parliament. With just five major parties predicted to receive the required vote share, this will make the matter of forming a coalition slightly easier. The most likely coalition is probably one that consists of the CDU and SPD, although if they win enough seats, the CDU may be able to form one with the Greens.