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The results of the first round of the extraordinary elections on August 20, 2023, did not differ much from the estimated distribution for Luisa González in the previous polls, which gave the candidate of the Citizen Revolution movement about one-third of the votes. What the polls were not able to predict was the huge support from the electorate received by Daniel Noboa, who positioned himself as the second most voted candidate.

October 15: a highly anticipated second round

The great victory of González over Noboa in the first round — with almost a 10 percentage point difference — is not, however, a guarantee that the correistas can soon return to the Carondelet Palace. In fact, several voting intention studies give the Guayaquil businessman as the winner in the second round. The burden of several corruption episodes such as the “Bribery Case” still weighs heavily on the movement now led by the lawyer from Quito.

Social discontent and crime

Now, corruption affects more than one side. Not in vain, the scandal of the “Big Godfather” report was one of the triggers for the dissolution of Parliament and the advancement of elections after barely two years of government (mutual death), but not the only one. The difficult economic situation inherited by former president Guillermo Lasso was worsened by social cuts in some areas in order to reduce public debt and regain the support of international markets, along with the increase in the prices of several basic basket components or, in other words, the rise in inflation. All this has created an ideal breeding ground for social discontent and crime.