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Methodology: This tariff scenario analysis presents three possible outcomes based on different assumptions. The baseline tariffs reflect our revenue forecast without significant trade disruptions. The modest and high tariff scenarios are adjusted according to expert insights and the impact of actual or expected tariffs, particularly those affecting trade with key partners.

Tariffs significantly affect the prices consumers pay for online purchases, as firms typically pass these costs onto consumers. A recent example is the U.S. elimination of the de minimis exemption, which allowed duty-free entry for packages under $800 from China, highlighting potential financial consequences for shoppers.

Tariffs can also indirectly influence consumer behavior in unrelated markets. This behavioral change is linked to price elasticity, which varies across product categories. Discretionary purchases are particularly susceptible to price increases or market fluctuations due to tariff policies.