Ignition probabilities of natural gas and hydrogen used as heating sources in households in Great Britain from April 2016 to March 2020, by incident cause and scenario*
Characteristic
Natural gas (methane)
Hydrogen (ignition base case)
Hydrogen (ignition sensitivity case)
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* Ignition probabilities found through quantitative risk assessment study evaluating the ignition potential of hydrogen-air mixtures via household electrical items and a comparison with the ignition potential of methane-air mixtures.
Forecast based on a study of 62 incidents reported between April 2016 and March 2020.
Third party incident cause does not differentiate between accidental (such as DIY and builder accidents) and malicious damage.
Kitchen door open also includes cases where the kitchen door is non-existent.
More information regarding methodology can be found .
Citation formats
Ignition potential of natural gas and hydrogen used for household heating in GB 2020
Natural gas has a lower ignition probability compared to hydrogen. Based on a study which analyzed ** incidents in Great Britain between April 2016 and March 2020, the ignition potential of methane (natural gas) varied between **** and ****, while hydrogen had an ignition potential between **** and ****. Incidents due to material corrosion or degradation with a closed kitchen door where methane was the heating fuel used had an ignition potential of ***, while hydrogen stood at **** to ****, depending on the sensitivity case. This represents a four-fold increase in ignition potential compared to methane. Following the same trend, the domestic explosion risk for hydrogen heating systems is over four-times higher compared to natural gas systems.
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Hy4heat. (May 1, 2021). Ignition probabilities of natural gas and hydrogen used as heating sources in households in Great Britain from April 2016 to March 2020, by incident cause and scenario* [Graph]. In ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Retrieved July 28, 2026, from /statistics/1258563/natural-gas-and-hydrogen-ignition-probability-by-incident-and-scenario/
Hy4heat. "Ignition probabilities of natural gas and hydrogen used as heating sources in households in Great Britain from April 2016 to March 2020, by incident cause and scenario*." Chart. May 1, 2021. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Accessed July 28, 2026. /statistics/1258563/natural-gas-and-hydrogen-ignition-probability-by-incident-and-scenario/
Hy4heat. (2021). Ignition probabilities of natural gas and hydrogen used as heating sources in households in Great Britain from April 2016 to March 2020, by incident cause and scenario*. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc.. Accessed: July 28, 2026. /statistics/1258563/natural-gas-and-hydrogen-ignition-probability-by-incident-and-scenario/
Hy4heat. "Ignition Probabilities of Natural Gas and Hydrogen Used as Heating Sources in Households in Great Britain from April 2016 to March 2020, by Incident Cause and Scenario*." ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc., 1 May 2021, /statistics/1258563/natural-gas-and-hydrogen-ignition-probability-by-incident-and-scenario/
Hy4heat, Ignition probabilities of natural gas and hydrogen used as heating sources in households in Great Britain from April 2016 to March 2020, by incident cause and scenario* ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, /statistics/1258563/natural-gas-and-hydrogen-ignition-probability-by-incident-and-scenario/ (last visited July 28, 2026)
Ignition probabilities of natural gas and hydrogen used as heating sources in households in Great Britain from April 2016 to March 2020, by incident cause and scenario* [Graph], Hy4heat, May 1, 2021. [Online]. Available: /statistics/1258563/natural-gas-and-hydrogen-ignition-probability-by-incident-and-scenario/
