The Conservative Party of Canada held a consistent and widening lead over the Liberal Party from 2022-2024, with a margin of almost 30 percent in December 2024. However, a series of events in early 2025 saw this margin shrink sharply, with the Liberals even moving ahead in the polls by March and into April.
As of April, the Liberal Party was expected to win the majority of seats. As of projections just before the election, there was about a 68 percent chance that the LPC would reach 172 seats on its own.Â
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338Canada. (April 24, 2025). Canadian federal election coalition projection as of April 24, 2025 [Graph]. In ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Retrieved July 23, 2026, from /statistics/1611220/canada-federal-election-coalition-projection/
338Canada. "Canadian federal election coalition projection as of April 24, 2025." Chart. April 24, 2025. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Accessed July 23, 2026. /statistics/1611220/canada-federal-election-coalition-projection/
338Canada. (2025). Canadian federal election coalition projection as of April 24, 2025. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc.. Accessed: July 23, 2026. /statistics/1611220/canada-federal-election-coalition-projection/
338Canada. "Canadian Federal Election Coalition Projection as of April 24, 2025." ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc., 24 Apr 2025, /statistics/1611220/canada-federal-election-coalition-projection/
338Canada, Canadian federal election coalition projection as of April 24, 2025 ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, /statistics/1611220/canada-federal-election-coalition-projection/ (last visited July 23, 2026)
Canadian federal election coalition projection as of April 24, 2025 [Graph], 338Canada, April 24, 2025. [Online]. Available: /statistics/1611220/canada-federal-election-coalition-projection/
