Risk of genocide in Nigeria 2017-2024| ��ƽ��

Risk of genocide in Nigeria between 2017 and 2024

Characteristic	Risk percentage
2023-2024	3.2%
2022-2023	7.9%
2021-2022	7.1%
2020-2021	7.3%
2019-2020	5.2%
2018-2019	5.9%
2017-2018	5.9%

Download

Source

Show detailed source information?

Already a member?

Source

Release date

March 2024

More information

Region

Nigeria

Survey time period

2017 to 2024

Supplementary notes

The source does not mention a release date. The date of access was taken as the release date.
The source measures the risk by identifying historical instances of mass killing, discerning patterns that distinguished countries that experienced mass killing from others, and then applying that model to the latest publicly available data to estimate the likelihood of a new mass killing.

The source indicates Nigeria as a country with an ongoing mass killing episode.

Citation formats

Nigeria is the fifth country in sub-Saharan Africa at risk of genocide. Worldwide, Nigeria ranked 12th as of 2024. The risk percentage of mass killing stood at 3.2 percent, dropping from 7.9 percent in the preceding year. Many different forms of violence and conflicts are often ongoing in Nigeria, mainly in the North due to the rooted presence of Boko Haram. In addition, different armed groups are operating in the country, like those in the Niger Delta and South-East Zone.

Nevertheless, the source does not consider violence caused by those running conflicts and separatist movements as criteria for mass killings. Despite the high number of deaths caused by terrorism, these groups do not act against a particular group of civilians. According to the source, Nigeria's high position in the ranking is determined by criteria which include its large population of over 200 million people, its high child mortality rate, the ongoing battle-related deaths, the country's history of mass killing, and its degree of ethnic fractionalization.