Non-primary care specialties include four categories: medical specialties, surgical specialties, primary-care-trained-hospitalists, and other specialties.
By the year 2036, a shortage of 13,500 to 86,000 physicians is expected in the United States. While still high, this is much lower than the projected shortages in a previous report. The new projections are based on an assumed increase in funding in graduate medical education (GME). If this assumption is not met, physician shortfall will match that of previous years, upwards of 124,000 by 2034. As of 2021, the country is already facing a deficiency of 37,000 doctors.
By 2036, the United States will be short on 20,200 to 40,400 primary care physicians (PCP). In comparison, a shortage of 5,500 to a surplus of 3,700 medical specialists was forecasted for 2036. This is caused by an over-supply in a few selected specialties, such as emergency medicine and critical care.
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AAMC. (March 1, 2024). Predicted shortage of physicians and specialists in the U.S. by 2036 [Graph]. In ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Retrieved July 15, 2026, from /statistics/1488638/predicted-physician-shortage/
AAMC. "Predicted shortage of physicians and specialists in the U.S. by 2036." Chart. March 1, 2024. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Accessed July 15, 2026. /statistics/1488638/predicted-physician-shortage/
AAMC. (2024). Predicted shortage of physicians and specialists in the U.S. by 2036. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc.. Accessed: July 15, 2026. /statistics/1488638/predicted-physician-shortage/
AAMC. "Predicted Shortage of Physicians and Specialists in The U.S. by 2036." ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc., 1 Mar 2024, /statistics/1488638/predicted-physician-shortage/
AAMC, Predicted shortage of physicians and specialists in the U.S. by 2036 ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, /statistics/1488638/predicted-physician-shortage/ (last visited July 15, 2026)
Predicted shortage of physicians and specialists in the U.S. by 2036 [Graph], AAMC, March 1, 2024. [Online]. Available: /statistics/1488638/predicted-physician-shortage/
