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Since 1912, the U.S. presidential election has been contested in Arizona 29 times, and the Grand Canyon State has successfully chosen the winning candidate on 23 occasions, giving a success rate of 79 percent. Between 1952 and 2016, Arizona voted for the Republican nominee in every election except 1996, and has been considered a safe, "red state" throughout most of its history.

2020 upset

In 2020, Democratic nominee Joe Biden managed to flip the state blue, eventually carrying the state's popular vote by a 0.3 percent margin. This victory was attributed to President Donald Trump's unpopularity among traditional Republicans, following his perceived mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic and unpleasant relationship with the late Arizona Senator, John McCain. Additionally, increased turnout among Mexican American and Native American voters, who tend to vote Democratic, helped swing the result in favor of the former Vice President.

Allocation of votes

Since its admission to the union in 1912, Arizona's designated number of electoral votes has gradually risen from just three votes in 1912, to eleven votes since 2012. As of 2024, no Arizonan has ever ascended to the presidency, however the Republican candidates in the 1964 and 2008 elections, Barry M. Goldwater and John McCain respectively, were both from Arizona.