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In France, the next presidential elections will take place in April 2022. While it is still too early to get a clear picture of the outcome of the election, polling firms have already begun surveying the French about their voting intentions. It appears, according to these figures, that if the two candidates present in the second round of the 2017 presidential elections - Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen - were neck and neck in January 2021, with the latter exceeding the former by *** points in the polls, this gap has widened over the course of the year. On February 16, 2022, the candidate of the Rassemblement National only gathered **** percent of the voting intentions, while the score of the outgoing president remained almost the same as at the beginning of the year.
Eric Zemmour's progression between September 22 and the beginning of November is also noteworthy. While the far-right polemicist, condemned by the courts for provocation to racial discrimination, accused of rape, and prosecuted for several ongoing cases, had not yet announced his candidacy, these figures put him on a par with Marine Le Pen until January 5, 2022.
On the other hand, it seems useful to stress that the existing differences between the different polling institutes underline that it is too early to have figures reflecting the future results, and that it is rather a question of photographing a precise moment of the campaign. A large part of the French population has not yet expressed a definitive choice, and they are not yet interested in this campaign.
Some also mention a media bubble effect regarding the case of Eric Zemmour, considering that the media bring too much attention to the declarations of the polemicist, seeking to create a buzz, and that the polling institutes contribute to legitimize the potential future candidate.