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In 2024, Russia produced approximately **** million barrels of oil daily, down from **** million barrels recorded in the previous year. The volume of crude oil, shale oil, oil sands, and natural gas liquids supplied by Russia continuously increased until 2019, making it the world’s third-largest oil producer. Over the next three decades, Russia was forecast to decrease its oil production under both the current trajectory and net-zero scenarios.

Russia’s oil dependency

The Russian oil industry is the major contributor to the country’s exports, which makes the country vulnerable to decreasing oil prices. Under the conservative scenario, the fuel and energy complex was forecast to decrease its share in the country’s gross domestic product from ** percent to ** percent between 2020 and 2040.

OPEC deal – a reduction in Russian oil output?

In 2016, Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reached an agreement, according to which Russia cut its oil production to facilitate the increase in crude oil prices. In compliance with the deal from December 2019, in the first quarter of 2020, Russia’s reduction quota reached 300 thousand barrels daily. In March 2020, the OPEC+ deal collapsed, as Russia refused to cut its oil output due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Starting from May 1, 2020, a new OPEC+ deal began, setting oil production cuts at 9.7 million barrels daily.