Includes industrial process and flaring emissions.
Supplementary notes
The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS): This scenario offers an overview of the expected trajectory for the energy system, grounded in a thorough analysis of existing policy frameworks.
Announced Pledges Scenario (APS): This scenario presents a path for the energy sector assuming that all national energy and climate commitments, including long-term net-zero emissions targets, are fully achieved and adhered to on schedule.
Citation formats
Total COâ‚‚ emission projections in the European Union 2023-2050, by scenario
Carbon dioxide emissions in the European Union amounted to roughy *** billion metric tons of carbon dioxide (GtCOâ‚‚) in 2023. In a stated policies scenario, EU total COâ‚‚ emissions are projected to decrease by ** percent from 2023 levels by 2030, before falling to around *** MtCOâ‚‚ by mid-century. In an announced pledges scenario, COâ‚‚ emissions would drop to just over 100 MtCOâ‚‚ by 2050.
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IEA. (August 12, 2024). Total carbon dioxide emission projections in the European Union from 2023 to 2050, by scenario (in million metric tons of COâ‚‚) [Graph]. In ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Retrieved July 19, 2026, from /statistics/1610574/forecast-co2-emissions-eu-by-scenario/
IEA. "Total carbon dioxide emission projections in the European Union from 2023 to 2050, by scenario (in million metric tons of COâ‚‚)." Chart. August 12, 2024. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Accessed July 19, 2026. /statistics/1610574/forecast-co2-emissions-eu-by-scenario/
IEA. (2024). Total carbon dioxide emission projections in the European Union from 2023 to 2050, by scenario (in million metric tons of COâ‚‚). ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc.. Accessed: July 19, 2026. /statistics/1610574/forecast-co2-emissions-eu-by-scenario/
IEA. "Total Carbon Dioxide Emission Projections in The European Union from 2023 to 2050, by Scenario (in Million Metric Tons of Coâ‚‚)." ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc., 12 Aug 2024, /statistics/1610574/forecast-co2-emissions-eu-by-scenario/
IEA, Total carbon dioxide emission projections in the European Union from 2023 to 2050, by scenario (in million metric tons of COâ‚‚) ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, /statistics/1610574/forecast-co2-emissions-eu-by-scenario/ (last visited July 19, 2026)
Total carbon dioxide emission projections in the European Union from 2023 to 2050, by scenario (in million metric tons of COâ‚‚) [Graph], IEA, August 12, 2024. [Online]. Available: /statistics/1610574/forecast-co2-emissions-eu-by-scenario/
