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Projected COâ‚‚ and NOx emissions from buildings in the European Union (EU-27) in the heat pump scenario from 2022 to 2030 (in million metric tons)

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Release date

April 2023

Region

EU

Survey time period

2022

Supplementary notes

COâ‚‚ and NOx emission reductions from EU buildings by 2030 in the heat pump scenario, compared to 2022.

Heat pump scenario:

- Energy price projections based on REPowerEU forecast
- COâ‚‚ price on heating fuels (ETS2) and power sector decarbonization by 2050
- Renovation rate increases from 1% to 3.5% by 2030
- Large uptake of heat pumps (in individual heating and district heating) in line with REPowerEU 

Citation formats

Emissions from buildings in the EU-27 under the heat pump scenario 2022-2030, by type

Published by ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Research Department, Feb 5, 2024

Carbon dioxide emissions from residential buildings in the European Union could be reduced by ** between 2022 and 2030 if heat pumps are deployed in line with the REPowerEU plan. This would require ** million heat pumps to be installed during this time. EU air quality would also be improved under this scenario, with nitrogen oxide emissions reduced by almost ** percent, to roughly *** million metric tons. 

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