EU-27: residual waste reduction target scenarios 2030| ��ƽ��

Possible residual municipal waste reduction target scenarios in the European Union (EU-27) from 2020 to 2030

Characteristic	Recycling rate	Residual municipal waste
2030 Scenario 3 (34% waste reduction)	60%	56.48%
2030 Scenario 2 (No waste reduction)	73%	56.48%
2030 Scenario 1 (No waste reduction)	60%	87.33%
2020 (current situation)	48%	112.96%

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Release date

May 2023

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Survey time period

2020

Special properties

Scenarios to reach halving residual municipal waste by 2030*

Supplementary notes

* Future scenarios: (Scenario 1) 3.7 percent increase in total municipal waste generated (i.e. no waste reduction or ‘business as usual’ (BAU)) and 2030 recycling target of 60% met; (Scenario 2) 3.7 percent increase in total municipal waste generated (i.e. no waste reduction) with 73 percent recycling rate; and (Scenario 3) reduction in total municipal waste of 34 percent compared with the scenarios 1 and 2 and 60 percent recycling target met.

Residual waste is waste that was neither recycled nor reused, i.e. waste material not collected separately for recycling or composting/digestion, and residues from sorting processes. Residual municipal waste is either incinerated or landfilled.

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The European Union (EU-27) currently recycles roughly 48 percent of municipal waste each year, leaving approximately 113 million metric tons of residual municipal waste (neither recycled nor reused) annually. Under the European Commission's Waste Framework Directive, residual municipal waste needs to be reduced by 50 percent by 2030 to roughly 56.5 million metric tons. However, the EU is currently not on track to reach this target without reducing total municipal waste.

Under the Waste Framework Directive, at least 60 percent of EU municipal waste should be prepared for reuse or to be recycled by 2030. However, as Scenario 1 shows, even if this target is met, the residual waste target would be missed should total municipal waste generation continue to rise on a business as usual approach.
In scenario 2, the target could be met should there be no waste reduction, but this would require EU Member States to reach an ambitious recycling rate of 73 percent by 2030.