* The linear warming trend is calculated to be 1.2 degree Celsius.
Projections based on a low emission scenario, which assumes a future global mean temperature change (1986-2005 as a reference period) of about one degree Celsius, while the high emission scenario projects a change of 3.7 degrees Celsius.
Adapted from Statistics Canada, Canada's Changing Climate Report 2019, table 4.2, 2020. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.
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Forecast change in mean temperature in Canada 2031-2050, by region and scenario
According to high emissions forecast scenario, Canada's mean temperature is estimated to change by 2.3 degrees Celsius between 2031 and 2050. Northern Canada is estimated to see the biggest temperature changes, with figures above the national average, at 1.8 degrees Celsius or 2.7 degrees Celsius, depending on a low or high emission scenario.
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Government of Canada. (July 29, 2020). Forecast change in mean temperature in Canada between 2031 and 2050, compared with 1986 to 2005 average, by region and scenario* (in degrees Celsius) [Graph]. In ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Retrieved July 16, 2026, from /statistics/1281573/forecast-mean-temperature-changes-in-canada/
Government of Canada. "Forecast change in mean temperature in Canada between 2031 and 2050, compared with 1986 to 2005 average, by region and scenario* (in degrees Celsius)." Chart. July 29, 2020. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Accessed July 16, 2026. /statistics/1281573/forecast-mean-temperature-changes-in-canada/
Government of Canada. (2020). Forecast change in mean temperature in Canada between 2031 and 2050, compared with 1986 to 2005 average, by region and scenario* (in degrees Celsius). ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc.. Accessed: July 16, 2026. /statistics/1281573/forecast-mean-temperature-changes-in-canada/
Government of Canada. "Forecast Change in Mean Temperature in Canada between 2031 and 2050, Compared with 1986 to 2005 Average, by Region and Scenario* (in Degrees Celsius)." ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc., 29 Jul 2020, /statistics/1281573/forecast-mean-temperature-changes-in-canada/
Government of Canada, Forecast change in mean temperature in Canada between 2031 and 2050, compared with 1986 to 2005 average, by region and scenario* (in degrees Celsius) ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, /statistics/1281573/forecast-mean-temperature-changes-in-canada/ (last visited July 16, 2026)
Forecast change in mean temperature in Canada between 2031 and 2050, compared with 1986 to 2005 average, by region and scenario* (in degrees Celsius) [Graph], Government of Canada, July 29, 2020. [Online]. Available: /statistics/1281573/forecast-mean-temperature-changes-in-canada/
