Additional TB cases and deaths worldwide due to elimination of U.S. aid 2025| ��ƽ��

Possible number of additional tuberculosis cases and deaths worldwide from 2025 to 2040 due to the elimination of U.S. foreign assistance for global health (in millions)

Characteristic	Number of additional cases and deaths in millions
Deaths from tuberculosis	2.2
New MTB infections	68.7
New incident episodes of symptomatic tuberculosis	9

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Sources

Release date

April 2025

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Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

As of 2025

Supplementary notes

These figures were taken from a preprint article. That means it offers immediate access but has not been peer reviewed. The source provides the following information about preprint articles: "Preprints with The Lancet is a collaboration between The Lancet Group of journals and SSRN to facilitate the open sharing of preprints for early engagement, community comment, and collaboration. Preprints available here are not Lancet publications or necessarily under review with a Lancet journal. These preprints are early-stage research papers that have not been peer-reviewed. The usual SSRN checks and a Lancet-specific check for appropriateness and transparency have been applied. The findings should not be used for clinical or public health decision-making or presented without highlighting these facts."

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In January 2025, President Trump ordered a pause on funding for the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and a 90-day review of all U.S. foreign assistance. By the end of March, the review had been completed, 83 percent of USAID programs were terminated, and it was announced that certain USAID functions would be overtaken by the Department of State while all others would be discontinued.

A preprint research paper posted in April 2025 looked at the possible effects that reductions or cessation of U.S. foreign aid would have on global health. The researchers estimated that a loss of all U.S. funding to national TB programs, without replacement, would result in an additional 2.2 million deaths from tuberculosis from 2025 to 2040. Furthermore, they estimated that the loss of U.S. aid would lead to 68.7 million additional MTB infections over this period. MTB infections are the primary cause of tuberculosis. This paper has not been peer-reviewed, so the estimates should be interpreted with caution, but there is no doubt that such cuts to U.S. foreign aid will result in an increase in tuberculosis infections and deaths, especially in high-impact countries.

Trump has said that the United States spends too much on foreign aid and accused USAID of being corrupt and a waste of money. However, foreign aid accounts for just one percent of the federal budget. Furthermore, it is predicted that millions of people will die due to the dissolution of USAID, as vulnerable people around the world will no longer be able to access prevention and treatment for diseases such as HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria.