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The IEA is the energy institute expecting the highest oil surplus for 2025. As demand outlooks remain modest, robust production output throughout 2024 is expected to result in some form of oil surplus, which would also impact oil prices. Woodmac was the only energy institute surveyed that did not see a surplus for the year.

Production growth amid lower demand expectations

The expected surplus in 2025 is largely attributed to non-OPEC production growth from major producers such as the United States and newcomers like Guyana. Overall, worldwide liquid fuels production could see a steep increase in the first half of 2025, if producers like OPEC stick to their output plans. This would come in spite of modest consumption expectations. Again, the IEA is the institute predicting the lowest growth in global oil demand when compared to other industry bodies such as the EIA and OPEC.

Forecasting centers diverge in opinion on oil future

Not only near-term, also long-term oil demand projections have become increasingly divergent among major energy institutions. OPEC's 2024 outlook expects global oil demand to surpass *** million barrels per day by 2030, while the IEA's stated policies scenario anticipates demand reaching only million barrels per day in the same year. Diesel and gasoil currently account for the largest share of oil product demand at percent, though this is expected to decrease slightly by 2050. Jet fuel and kerosene are projected to see the greatest increase in demand shares over the coming decades.