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Monthly probability of a recession in the next 12 months in the United States from December 2021 to February 2026 with a forecast to January 2027

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Sources

Release date

February 2026

Region

United States

Survey time period

December 2021 to February 2026

Supplementary notes

*Projections

Citation formats

Probability of a recession in the U.S. 2021-2026 forecast to 2027

Published by ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Research Department, Mar 17, 2026

As of February 2026, the probability of an economic recession in the United States over the next 12 months stood at  percent. This reflected an increased likelihood compared to the previous month. By January 2027, it is projected to decrease to a likelihood of  percent.

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