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Nevertheless, a growing development has emerged that is largely going unnoticed: the south records better demographic indicators, with the mean age of the population being lower and birth rates higher compared to other macro-regions. Therefore, the socioeconomic divide that marks the predominance of the north in terms of greater economic productivity, better employment levels, higher salaries, more efficient public services, and better infrastructure is not the only disparity within Italian territory, as has often been the focus. Instead, the demographic divide highlights the south’s higher fertility rates, the younger population, and a more solid family structure compared to the north. Hence, in a country that is suffering from a serious fertility crisis, the southern regions may contribute to lessening the demographic decline. Future development perspectives remain unclear, as the question is whether the economy will move south to meet the labor supply, or whether the population will continue to migrate north to meet the labor demand.

The socioeconomic divide

The Italian territory is divided into five macro-regions, each grouping from two to five regions: north-west, north-east, central, south, and islands. In the north-west and in the south resides half of the total Italian population, however, significant differences in the economy and productivity persist. In 2023, the GDP reached 709 billion euros for the north, compared with 322 billion euros in the south. Considering figures of central regions also, the difference in GDP of northern and central Italy with the south, Sicily and Sardinia was more than 1,200 billion euros. Moreover, the GDP per capita of the southern regions was the half of that of the north, highlighting a large disparity in the distribution of wealth across the Italian territory.

In 2024, the average salaries in the north were twelve percent higher than in the south and islands. Furthermore, the disposable income per capita confirms this inequality. Households in the north had an average disposable income of 8,700 euros higher compared to southern families. Differences in wages are combined with a higher unemployment rate in southern regions. Lower earnings and employment levels have led to job insecurity and vulnerability, so that many people rely on income support measures. Nonetheless, all of these factors push many Italians residing in Sardinia, Sicily, and other southern regions to relocate to the north, attracted not only by more stable jobs and higher wages, but also by better public services, specifically in the healthcare sector.

The demographic divide

Italy’s population has naturally decreased for more than 30 years. At the core of this dramatic population crisis is falling fertility. Families have faced more and more difficulties in raising children in recent years, mostly because of the increased costs of living that have not been compensated with a proportional growth of salaries, and higher employment rates for women, who have traditionally borne family care responsibilities. These elements coupled with a longer life expectancy caused the aging of the population. This situation is particularly marked in the northern regions, where the better economic conditions have drastically increased the living costs and reduced the time that families can invest in childcare.

Even though salaries are lower in the south, more moderate living costs have allowed couples to have more resources for family planning. Therefore, the southern regions, including Sicily, stand out for their more positive demographic indicators. The population is on average two years younger compared to other macro-regions. Given the younger population, fertility rates are higher, and women give birth to their first child at an earlier age. Marriages are more frequent, and families are larger. Although still negative, the natural growth rate in the south recorded more promising figures than northern and central regions. One exception is Sardinia, that has the second-oldest population nationwide and a natural growth rate of -7.3 per 1,000 inhabitants.

Demography plays an essential role for sustaining a country’s development, as without a young population, it is impossible to maintain a sufficiently sized workforce which is essential for economic growth. The risk can be of overlooking the demographic disparities if decision-makers prioritize policies to address only the economic one, and vice versa. Without a comprehensive development plan aimed at stimulating the southern economy and at encouraging natality in the north, the divide between Italian regions will be difficult to overcome.