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China's declining population

ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ overview report on China's declining population

China’s population decreased in 2022 for the first time since 1961. The country was once known for its rapid demographic growth, but in the upcoming decades, population decline will most likely happen at a comparable speed. A shrinking working age population that needs to care for a growing number of people in retirement age will pose a major challenge for the Chinese economy.

This report takes a close look at China’s demographic development and how this change will affect the Chinese economy in the future. It examines the reasons for China’s demographic turn and discusses which future demographic scenario is probable. The report highlights how this development affects China’s economy, and how the government is trying to respond to the growing pressure. A special focus is set on the social security net, which will need to be adjusted in multiple ways to meet the challenges posed by a decreasing and rapidly aging population.

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Table of contents

Demographic realities

  • China versus India
  • East Asia’s shrinking populations
  • China’s fast demographic change

Demographic prospects
  • China's thin reproductive base
  • The old replace the young
  • Regional disparities

Economic transformation
  • Integrating an aging workforce
  • Keeping labor participation high
  • Improving productivity

Social security
  • Filling gaps in the social security net
  • Improving social insurance funding
  • Building up sufficient elderly care

Conclusion and outlook

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