As of December 2025, the team with the highest chance of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026 was Spain, with a win probability of ** percent. Meanwhile, France and England had win probabilities of **** percent and **** percent, respectively.
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Opta. (December 5, 2025). Leading teams with the highest chance of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026 as of December 2025 [Graph]. In ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Retrieved July 22, 2026, from /statistics/1660076/win-probability-fifa-world-cup-teams/
Opta. "Leading teams with the highest chance of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026 as of December 2025." Chart. December 5, 2025. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Accessed July 22, 2026. /statistics/1660076/win-probability-fifa-world-cup-teams/
Opta. (2025). Leading teams with the highest chance of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026 as of December 2025. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc.. Accessed: July 22, 2026. /statistics/1660076/win-probability-fifa-world-cup-teams/
Opta. "Leading Teams with The Highest Chance of Winning The Fifa World Cup 2026 as of December 2025." ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc., 5 Dec 2025, /statistics/1660076/win-probability-fifa-world-cup-teams/
Opta, Leading teams with the highest chance of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026 as of December 2025 ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, /statistics/1660076/win-probability-fifa-world-cup-teams/ (last visited July 22, 2026)
Leading teams with the highest chance of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026 as of December 2025 [Graph], Opta, December 5, 2025. [Online]. Available: /statistics/1660076/win-probability-fifa-world-cup-teams/
