The Current Trajectory scenario is based on current energy policies and decarbonization targets, assuming that carbon emissions will decrease by 25 percent between 2023 and 2050. The Below two degrees scenario explores a shift in policies and societal behaviors and the introduction of new technologies that would drive carbon emissions to decrease by 95 percent by 2050.Â
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Global primary energy consumption 2023-2050, by energy source and scenario
Almost 85 percent of the global primary energy demand was met by coal, natural gas, and oil in 2023. According to projections based on the current trend of the energy sector, fossil fuels will maintain a leading role in the primary energy sector until 2050. However, a significant effort to decrease carbon emissions would determine a shift to renewable energy.
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BP. (September 25, 2025). Primary energy consumption worldwide in 2023, with a forecast until 2050, by energy source and scenario (in exajoules) [Graph]. In ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Retrieved July 20, 2026, from /statistics/1605591/projected-global-energy-consumption-by-source-and-scenario/
BP. "Primary energy consumption worldwide in 2023, with a forecast until 2050, by energy source and scenario (in exajoules)." Chart. September 25, 2025. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Accessed July 20, 2026. /statistics/1605591/projected-global-energy-consumption-by-source-and-scenario/
BP. (2025). Primary energy consumption worldwide in 2023, with a forecast until 2050, by energy source and scenario (in exajoules). ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc.. Accessed: July 20, 2026. /statistics/1605591/projected-global-energy-consumption-by-source-and-scenario/
BP. "Primary Energy Consumption Worldwide in 2023, with a Forecast until 2050, by Energy Source and Scenario (in Exajoules)." ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc., 25 Sep 2025, /statistics/1605591/projected-global-energy-consumption-by-source-and-scenario/
BP, Primary energy consumption worldwide in 2023, with a forecast until 2050, by energy source and scenario (in exajoules) ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, /statistics/1605591/projected-global-energy-consumption-by-source-and-scenario/ (last visited July 20, 2026)
Primary energy consumption worldwide in 2023, with a forecast until 2050, by energy source and scenario (in exajoules) [Graph], BP, September 25, 2025. [Online]. Available: /statistics/1605591/projected-global-energy-consumption-by-source-and-scenario/
