Forecast impact of EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) on gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU) by 2022
Characteristic
Impact on UK GDP
Impact on EU GDP
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The WTO scenario in this statistic is taken from the Autumn Economic Forecast published by the European Commission prior to the signing of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). That model was based on a no deal scenario with trade under World Trade Organisation's (WTO) MFN principles.
In December 24, 2020, the European Union and the United Kingdom signed the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) after years of negotiations following the Brexit decision of June 2016. According to the winter economic forecast published by the European Commission, the impact of the trade agreement on the United Kingdom's gross domestic output (GDP) is predicted to lead to a loss of about **** percent by the end of 2022. This was lower than the previous forecast, which was based on a no-deal scenario trading under WTO terms. The impact of the trade agreement on the EU's GDP is forecast to be significantly lower at about *** percent.
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European Commission. (February 11, 2021). Forecast impact of EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) on gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU) by 2022 [Graph]. In ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Retrieved July 26, 2026, from /statistics/1220208/eu-uk-tca-brexit-impact-on-gdp/
European Commission. "Forecast impact of EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) on gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU) by 2022." Chart. February 11, 2021. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Accessed July 26, 2026. /statistics/1220208/eu-uk-tca-brexit-impact-on-gdp/
European Commission. (2021). Forecast impact of EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) on gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU) by 2022. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc.. Accessed: July 26, 2026. /statistics/1220208/eu-uk-tca-brexit-impact-on-gdp/
European Commission. "Forecast Impact of Eu-uk Trade and Cooperation Agreement (Tca) on Gross Domestic Product (Gdp) of The United Kingdom (Uk) and The European Union (Eu) by 2022." ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc., 11 Feb 2021, /statistics/1220208/eu-uk-tca-brexit-impact-on-gdp/
European Commission, Forecast impact of EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) on gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU) by 2022 ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, /statistics/1220208/eu-uk-tca-brexit-impact-on-gdp/ (last visited July 26, 2026)
Forecast impact of EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) on gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU) by 2022 [Graph], European Commission, February 11, 2021. [Online]. Available: /statistics/1220208/eu-uk-tca-brexit-impact-on-gdp/
