The impact on GDP represents the cumulative effect after ten tears. The source adds that the entries were calculated using 2015 GDP and population data from the World Bank.
WTO rules scenario is taken as a baseline. Percentage point changes for EU-UK FTA and UK-EU Transitional Deal scenarios represent percentage point changes relative to this baseline.
Citation formats
Hard Brexit EU-UK trade scenarios impact on GDP 2021
As of January 31, 2020, the United Kingdom (UK) is no longer a member of the European Union (EU). The UK left the EU without a trade deal, and has until the end of 2020 to determine the new framework of its trade relations with the EU. This means either a free trade agreement (FTA) will need to be struck between the two parties, or the UK will fall back on trading under the World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.
According to a study on the possible impact of these scenarios on GDP growth in the UK, after the transition period ends by the beginning of 2021, trading under WTO terms will lead to a decline of *** percent in UK GDP. Relative to this rate, if the UK trade with the EU under a FTA, the GDP is forecast to improve by * percent.
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RAND Corporation. (December 12, 2017). Estimated impact of UK-EU trade under Hard Brexit scenarios on gross domestic product (GDP) in the United Kingdom (UK) as of 2021 [Graph]. In ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Retrieved August 01, 2026, from /statistics/1124465/hard-brexit-eu-uk-trade-scenarios-impact-on-gdp/
RAND Corporation. "Estimated impact of UK-EU trade under Hard Brexit scenarios on gross domestic product (GDP) in the United Kingdom (UK) as of 2021." Chart. December 12, 2017. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Accessed August 01, 2026. /statistics/1124465/hard-brexit-eu-uk-trade-scenarios-impact-on-gdp/
RAND Corporation. (2017). Estimated impact of UK-EU trade under Hard Brexit scenarios on gross domestic product (GDP) in the United Kingdom (UK) as of 2021. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc.. Accessed: August 01, 2026. /statistics/1124465/hard-brexit-eu-uk-trade-scenarios-impact-on-gdp/
RAND Corporation. "Estimated Impact of Uk-eu Trade under Hard Brexit Scenarios on Gross Domestic Product (Gdp) in The United Kingdom (Uk) as of 2021." ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc., 12 Dec 2017, /statistics/1124465/hard-brexit-eu-uk-trade-scenarios-impact-on-gdp/
RAND Corporation, Estimated impact of UK-EU trade under Hard Brexit scenarios on gross domestic product (GDP) in the United Kingdom (UK) as of 2021 ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, /statistics/1124465/hard-brexit-eu-uk-trade-scenarios-impact-on-gdp/ (last visited August 01, 2026)
Estimated impact of UK-EU trade under Hard Brexit scenarios on gross domestic product (GDP) in the United Kingdom (UK) as of 2021 [Graph], RAND Corporation, December 12, 2017. [Online]. Available: /statistics/1124465/hard-brexit-eu-uk-trade-scenarios-impact-on-gdp/
