* Values were derived from the predicted probability of a radical disruption two times per decade and part of global value chains' revenue at risk because of the disruption. Values are expressed as cumulative loss caused by a disruption for an upcoming decade as a share of one year's annual EBITDA.
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Global value chains' expected losses from supply chain disruptions by industry 2020
In a 2020 study, net present value (NPV) of predicted losses over 10 years in commercial aerospace industry is estimated around ** percent of annual earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). On average, supply chain disruptions cost a global value chain roughly ** percent of one year's EBITDA for throughout upcoming decade.
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McKinsey & Company. (August 6, 2020). Predicted net present value (NPV) losses from supply chain disruption over the course of a decade as of 2020, by industry* [Graph]. In ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Retrieved July 23, 2026, from /statistics/1155345/gvc-expected-loss-supply-chain-disruption/
McKinsey & Company. "Predicted net present value (NPV) losses from supply chain disruption over the course of a decade as of 2020, by industry*." Chart. August 6, 2020. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Accessed July 23, 2026. /statistics/1155345/gvc-expected-loss-supply-chain-disruption/
McKinsey & Company. (2020). Predicted net present value (NPV) losses from supply chain disruption over the course of a decade as of 2020, by industry*. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc.. Accessed: July 23, 2026. /statistics/1155345/gvc-expected-loss-supply-chain-disruption/
McKinsey & Company. "Predicted Net Present Value (Npv) Losses from Supply Chain Disruption over The Course of a Decade as of 2020, by Industry*." ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc., 6 Aug 2020, /statistics/1155345/gvc-expected-loss-supply-chain-disruption/
McKinsey & Company, Predicted net present value (NPV) losses from supply chain disruption over the course of a decade as of 2020, by industry* ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, /statistics/1155345/gvc-expected-loss-supply-chain-disruption/ (last visited July 23, 2026)
Predicted net present value (NPV) losses from supply chain disruption over the course of a decade as of 2020, by industry* [Graph], McKinsey & Company, August 6, 2020. [Online]. Available: /statistics/1155345/gvc-expected-loss-supply-chain-disruption/
