| Characteristic | Base scenario | Positive scenario | "Global recession" scenario |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - |
| - | - | - | - |
| - | - | - | - |
| - | - | - | - |
| - | - | - | - |
| - | - | - | - |
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Source
Sources
Release date
March 2020
More information
Region
Luxembourg
Survey time period
2019 to 2024
Supplementary notes
The source used two alternatives scenarios to forecast the economic outlook from 2020 onwards. The numbers in 2019 are "0", as these scenarios do not apply to that year. The scenarios are as follows:
- A scenario which concentrates itself on the multiple risks that all combined could lead to a global recession. This includes, for example, the effects felt on the financial markets due to the coronavirus outbreak. Oxford Economics estimated the likelihood of this scenario happening was at 30 percent.
- A scenario in which a quick resolution to the US-China trade war could lead to a growing world economy, spearheaded by China and other emerging countries. Oxford Economics estimated the likelihood of this scenario happening was at ten percent. STATEC adds that this scenario was originally developed in November 2019, but was updated in February 2020 to include the possible effects of the coronavirus outbreak in China.
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