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In the first quarter of 2026, the real gross domestic product (GDP) of Russia declined by 0.2 percent compared to the same quarter of the previous year. The decline in GDP recorded between the second quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 was related to the economic impact of the war in Ukraine, in response to which Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia. However, the recent monthly GDP growth data reflects the resilience of the economy in the face of external pressure in the short term.

GDP refers to the total market value of all goods and services produced within a country. It is an important indicator of economic strength. Real GDP is adjusted for price changes and is therefore regarded as a key indicator for economic growth.

Trade with China has eased the sanctions pressure

The dynamic trade relationship with China has likely played a key role in bolstering Russia's economic recovery, contributing to an over-one-percent GDP growth estimated for 2024. The importance of trade partnerships and their impact on GDP growth is underscored by the example of China's influence on both Russia's imports, especially of technology and equipment, and exports, particularly of fossil fuels.

Russian economic growth in the global context

Amid the global economic challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical disruptions such as the war in Ukraine, Russia's annual GDP growth was below the global one, which was forecast to reach approximately 3.1 percent in 2026.