Forecast based on the running of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM)
Supplementary notes
The source adds the following information:
The 10-year annualized nominal return and volatility forecasts are based on the December 31, 2022, running of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model® (VCMM). Fixed income returns reflect a 1-point range around the 50th percentile. More extreme returns are possible.
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Vanguard’s forecast 10-year return on U.S. and global fixed income securities 2025
As of 2025, Vanguard's Emerging markets sovereign bonds were forecast to provide the highest 10-year annualized return spread with a minimum forecast return of *** percent. U.S. high-yield corporate bonds came in second place with possible returns forecast to range from a possible *** to *** percent. These two securities were also forecast to have the highest medium volatility over a 10-year investment period.
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Vanguard. (July 29, 2025). Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2025, by type [Graph]. In ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Retrieved July 27, 2026, from /statistics/1371578/vanguards-forecast-10-year-return-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/
Vanguard. "Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2025, by type." Chart. July 29, 2025. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Accessed July 27, 2026. /statistics/1371578/vanguards-forecast-10-year-return-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/
Vanguard. (2025). Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2025, by type. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc.. Accessed: July 27, 2026. /statistics/1371578/vanguards-forecast-10-year-return-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/
Vanguard. "Vanguard’s Forecast 10-year Annualized Return Spread on U.S. and Global Fixed Income Securities in 2025, by Type." ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc., 29 Jul 2025, /statistics/1371578/vanguards-forecast-10-year-return-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/
Vanguard, Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2025, by type ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, /statistics/1371578/vanguards-forecast-10-year-return-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/ (last visited July 27, 2026)
Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2025, by type [Graph], Vanguard, July 29, 2025. [Online]. Available: /statistics/1371578/vanguards-forecast-10-year-return-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/
