Forecast based on the running of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM)
Supplementary notes
The source adds the following information:
The 10-year annualized nominal return and volatility forecasts are based on the December 31, 2022, running of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model® (VCMM). Fixed income returns reflect a 1-point range around the 50th percentile. More extreme returns are possible.
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Vanguard’s forecast 10-year volatility rate on U.S. and global fixed-income 2025
Aside from two outliers the majority of Vanguard's fixed-income securities were projected to have an average ** annualized volatility rate of under ***percent. Fixed income is used to refer to any investment in which a borrower/issuer is required to pay interest to the lender on the amount given. Due to the stable nature of fixed-income products in comparison to other securities such as equities the level of volatility is comparably low.
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Vanguard. (July 29, 2025). Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized average volatility rate on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2025, by type [Graph]. In ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Retrieved July 28, 2026, from /statistics/1370963/vanguards-forecast-10-year-annualized-average-volatility-rate-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/
Vanguard. "Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized average volatility rate on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2025, by type." Chart. July 29, 2025. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Accessed July 28, 2026. /statistics/1370963/vanguards-forecast-10-year-annualized-average-volatility-rate-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/
Vanguard. (2025). Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized average volatility rate on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2025, by type. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc.. Accessed: July 28, 2026. /statistics/1370963/vanguards-forecast-10-year-annualized-average-volatility-rate-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/
Vanguard. "Vanguard’s Forecast 10-year Annualized Average Volatility Rate on U.S. and Global Fixed Income Securities in 2025, by Type." ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc., 29 Jul 2025, /statistics/1370963/vanguards-forecast-10-year-annualized-average-volatility-rate-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/
Vanguard, Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized average volatility rate on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2025, by type ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, /statistics/1370963/vanguards-forecast-10-year-annualized-average-volatility-rate-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/ (last visited July 28, 2026)
Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized average volatility rate on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2025, by type [Graph], Vanguard, July 29, 2025. [Online]. Available: /statistics/1370963/vanguards-forecast-10-year-annualized-average-volatility-rate-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/
