Estimates are based on scenario two, where in-person schooling would resume by January 2021.
Includes 0.05 standard deviation reduction for black, Hispanic, and low-income students to account for recession impacts (~1 month of additional lost learning).
Citation formats
Estimated average months of learning lost due to COVID-19 by ethnicity U.S. 2020
As a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, many schools switched to distance learning in the United States. Consequently, it is estimated that Black K-12 students lost **** months of learning.
Implications of keeping schools open
School districts across the country have had to make tough decision to switch to online learning. As of February 2021, about a third of schools across the country were teaching virtually. There have been several arguments for keeping schools open, which are centered on the social, mental, and educational development of children. However, many argue that the physical health of children and their families take priority during this unprecedented time. Opponents of opening schools urge the government to find strategies that mitigate the disease and find a solution that fits the needs of all students.
Implications of keeping schools closed
If schools were to remain closed during the pandemic, there would be also other negative side effects. Because of the switch to online learning, it is estimated that if in-classroom instruction resumes by fall 2021, students will have lost about **** months of learning. Furthermore, as of February 2021, nearly a third of parents thought their child was behind where they should be when it came to their reading and writing skills.
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McKinsey & Company. (June 30, 2020). Estimated average months of learning lost compared with in-classroom learning due to COVID-19 in the United States in 2020, by ethnicity [Graph]. In ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Retrieved July 20, 2026, from /statistics/1224132/average-months-learning-lost-covid-19-ethnicity-us/
McKinsey & Company. "Estimated average months of learning lost compared with in-classroom learning due to COVID-19 in the United States in 2020, by ethnicity ." Chart. June 30, 2020. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Accessed July 20, 2026. /statistics/1224132/average-months-learning-lost-covid-19-ethnicity-us/
McKinsey & Company. (2020). Estimated average months of learning lost compared with in-classroom learning due to COVID-19 in the United States in 2020, by ethnicity . ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc.. Accessed: July 20, 2026. /statistics/1224132/average-months-learning-lost-covid-19-ethnicity-us/
McKinsey & Company. "Estimated Average Months of Learning Lost Compared with In-classroom Learning Due to Covid-19 in The United States in 2020, by Ethnicity ." ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc., 30 Jun 2020, /statistics/1224132/average-months-learning-lost-covid-19-ethnicity-us/
McKinsey & Company, Estimated average months of learning lost compared with in-classroom learning due to COVID-19 in the United States in 2020, by ethnicity ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, /statistics/1224132/average-months-learning-lost-covid-19-ethnicity-us/ (last visited July 20, 2026)
Estimated average months of learning lost compared with in-classroom learning due to COVID-19 in the United States in 2020, by ethnicity [Graph], McKinsey & Company, June 30, 2020. [Online]. Available: /statistics/1224132/average-months-learning-lost-covid-19-ethnicity-us/
