COVID-19 herd immunity path forecast U.S. 2021| ��ƽ��

Projected path to reach estimated COVID-19 herd immunity at 70% in the United States as of March 1, 2021

Characteristic	Immunity % from infection only	Immunity % from vaccination/past infection	Immunity % from vaccination only	Missing % until herd immunity reached
Dec 28	11	16	39	4
Dec 18	11	16	38	5
Dec 8	11	16	38	5
Nov 28	12	15	38	5
Nov 18	12	15	37	6
Nov 8	13	15	37	5
Oct 29	13	15	36	6
Oct 19	13	15	36	6
Oct 9	14	15	36	5
Sep 29	14	14	35	7
Sep 19	15	14	35	6
Sep 9	15	14	34	7
Aug 30	16	14	34	6
Aug 20	16	14	34	6
Aug 10	16	14	34	6
Jul 31	17	14	33	6
Jul 20	17	14	33	6
Jul 11	18	13	33	6
Jul 1	18	13	32	7
Jun 21	18	13	32	7
Jun 11	19	13	31	7
Jun 1	20	12	30	8
May 22	21	11	28	10
May 12	22	10	25	13
May 2	23	8	22	17
Apr 22	24	7	18	21
Apr 12	24	6	15	25
Apr 2	25	5	12	28
Mar 23	25	4	10	31
Mar 13	26	3	8	33
Mar 3	26	2	7	35
Feb 21	26	2	5	37
Feb 11	27	1	3	39
Feb 1	27	1	2	40
Jan 22	26	0	1	43

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Release date

March 2021

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Region

United States

Survey time period

as of March 1, 2021

Supplementary notes

Projections and estimates of COVID-19 developments are an ongoing process, often covered almost in real time. Thus, the values in this statistic and in the original source can differ significantly due to short-term changes and updates.
For more information about the methodology please visit the of the source.

Citation formats

For February 21, 2021, it was estimated that around 33 percent of the U.S. population was immune to COVID-19. According to the latest modeling, herd immunity - if estimated at around 70 percent of a population being immune to the virus - will probably not be reached in the course of 2021. Several reasons can be mentioned, among others: new and more infectious variants of the virus, vaccination hesitancy, and the lack of a vaccine for children. However, it is still not totally clear what percentage of a population needs to be immune to COVID-19 for there to be herd immunity against the disease. As the data shows, it is possible that from summer 2021 on something near herd immunity - or: a state closer to normal life - could be reached.