Netherlands: coronavirus GDP forecasts 2020| ��ƽ��

Short-term GDP growth forecast for 2020 according to different sources in Netherlands

Characteristic	Base scenarios (short lockdown, quarantine easing in early June 2020)	Extended lockdown*
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Source

Release date

June 2020

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Region

Netherlands

Survey time period

March, 2020 to June, 2020

Special properties

The data provided are all "nowcasts", with each source using their own models and assumptions. These have been simplified somewhat for this table, for more information see the "Details" tab.

Supplementary notes

Data has been compiled by ��ƽ�� using the following sources:

;
;
ING;
;
.

* The scenarios as listed here are somewhat simplified. "Extended lockdown" refers to the scenario all sources refer to as that government measures are in place beyond June 2020. The exact scenarios were as follows:

1) "Extended lockdown" for CPB is an an average of three scenarios. The CPB used four alternatives scenarios to predict the economic outlook for 2020 and 2021, in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak. Note that the source emphasizes very strongly that these are not official forecasts, but potential estimates. When these numbers were published at the end of March, 2020, the source (used by the Dutch government for their budget and policy planning) stated there too many unknowns but felt it had to give a certain prediction as circumstances had changed so much since their original outlook earlier that month.

The four CPB scenarios were based on the length of the measures taken by the Dutch government to reduce of physical contact and how this length affects the economy. The scenarios were as follows, and were translated as closely as possibly from the original Dutch source material:

Scenario 1 - Measures are in effect for three months, leading to first economic recovery in 2020. Production capacity stays relatively the same due to successful government support;
Scenario 2 - Measures are in effect for six months, leading to much bigger economic impact. World trade declines;
Scenario 3 - Measures are in effect for six months, but big problems in world economy and the financial market lead to a longer and much deeper recession;
Scenario 4 - Measures are in effect for 12 months, with a situation where a recession would be at least 1.5 years due to problems in the financial sector and in other foreign countries.

2) DNB or the Dutch Central Bank mentioned the big uncertainties in how the virus develops (for example, it mentioned the possibility of a second wave), but also the uncertainty on how the pandemic affected the world economy. The Netherlands, they said, very much relies on world trade. It therefore presented other scenarios. In the most positive scenario, the Dutch economy would decrease by 3.4 percent. In the worst scenario, the decrease would be the mentioned 11.8 percent.

3) ABN AMRO and ING did not provide numbers for an extended lockdown, as they felt there were too many unknowns. ING mentions that in their extended scenario (in which a second outbreak of the coronavirus would occur in the autumn), GDP would fall with more than seven percent but overall economic recovery but would be faster.

4) Rabobank emphasises the vulnerability of the open Dutch economy in the event of a global extended lockdown. This lockdown would be for "almost half a year", an additional 3 months on top of existing measures.

For further information about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, please visit our dedicated Facts and Figures page.

Citation formats

In June 2020, the five foremost Dutch economic forecasts presented different and uncertain economic outlooks for the rest of the year as the coronavirus spread. All banks as well as the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy predicted big declines in Dutch GDP for their base scenarios. These scenarios usually stated that the government measures in the Netherlands would be (partially) lifted at the end of May 2020, so that the economy could pick up again from June onwards. All sources, however, emphasized the large uncertainty surrounding these predictions. This is probably best seen in how much the numbers differ, but also in the numbers seen in the alternative scenarios, when restrictions either are not lifted in June or when they return in the autumn (in the event of a second outbreak of COVID-19). Dutch GDP could then decline by up to ** percent.