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Most likely starting quarter of the next recession according to macroeconomists in the United States, as of June 2022

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Sources

Release date

June 2022

Region

United States

Survey time period

June 2022

Number of respondents

47 respondents

Special properties

macroeconomists working at U.S. universities

Supplementary notes

The survey question phrased by the source asked in which starting quarter the next U.S. recession - as defined by the NBER business cycle dating committee - would most likely start.

Citation formats

Expected start date of the next U.S. recession 2022

Published by ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Research Department, Jul 14, 2022
A recession is due in the U.S. in 2023, according to a majority of macroeconomists in a June 2022 survey. Opinions varied, however, on when in 2023 this new recession could start exactly. Most respondents - ** percent - believed the economic downturn most likely start in the first half of 2023. Meanwhile, ** percent said that it would begin in the latter half of that year. Most Americans thought differently on this topic, believing that the country was already experiencing an economic recession in June 2022. The macroeconomists cited both geopolitical tensions and the increasing costs of energy as the main reasons why pressure would remain on U.S. inflation.
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