Mortgage originations on one-to-four family properties in the United States from 1st quarter 2012 to 1st quarter 2025, with a forecast until 2026 (in billion U.S. dollars)
Mortgage originations in the U.S. 2012-2025 with a forecast until 2026
The U.S. mortgage market has declined notably since 2020 and 2021, mostly due to the effect of higher borrowing costs on refinance mortgages. The value of refinancing mortgage originations amounted to billion U.S. dollars in the first quarter of 2025, down from a peak of billion U.S. dollars in the fourth quarter of 2020. The value of mortgage loans for the purchase of a property recorded milder fluctuations, with a value of billion U.S. dollars in the first quarter of 2025. According to the forecast, mortgage lending is expected to slightly increase until the end of 2026.
The cost of mortgage borrowing in the U.S.
Mortgage interest rates in the U.S. rose dramatically in 2022, peaking in the final quarter of 2024. In 2020, a homebuyer could lock in a 30-year fixed interest rate of under percent, whereas in 2024, the average rate for the same mortgage type exceeded percent. This has led to a decline in homebuyer sentiment and an increasing share of the population pessimistic about buying a home in the current market.Â
The effect of a slower housing market on property prices and rents
According to the S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, housing prices experienced a slight correction in early 2023, as property transactions declined. Nevertheless, the index continued to grow in the following months. On the other hand, residential rents have increased steadily since 2000.
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