Estimated semiconductor revenue change in case the U.S. decouples with China for the initial year of potential decoupling as of November 2025, by scenario and region
(in billion U.S. dollars)
Scenario
United States
Mainland China
Japan
Taiwan
EU
South Korea
Others
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Semiconductor revenue was modeled to change to a different extent in the initial year of a potential U.S.-China decoupling, varying by scenario and region. Under a full-decoupling scenario as of November 2025, U.S. semiconductor firms were estimated to lose about **** billion U.S. dollars in revenue in the initial year of decoupling, while firms in South Korea, the European Union (EU), and Taiwan would gain **** billion, **** billion, and **** billion U.S. dollars, respectively.
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ITIF. (November 10, 2025). Estimated semiconductor revenue change in case the U.S. decouples with China for the initial year of potential decoupling as of November 2025, by scenario and region (in billion U.S. dollars) [Graph]. In ÌÇÐÄÆÆ½â°æ. Retrieved July 28, 2026, from /statistics/1660294/semiconductor-revenue-impact-of-us-china-decoupling/
ITIF. "Estimated semiconductor revenue change in case the U.S. decouples with China for the initial year of potential decoupling as of November 2025, by scenario and region (in billion U.S. dollars)." Chart. November 10, 2025. ÌÇÐÄÆÆ½â°æ. Accessed July 28, 2026. /statistics/1660294/semiconductor-revenue-impact-of-us-china-decoupling/
ITIF. (2025). Estimated semiconductor revenue change in case the U.S. decouples with China for the initial year of potential decoupling as of November 2025, by scenario and region (in billion U.S. dollars). ÌÇÐÄÆÆ½â°æ. ÌÇÐÄÆÆ½â°æ Inc.. Accessed: July 28, 2026. /statistics/1660294/semiconductor-revenue-impact-of-us-china-decoupling/
ITIF. "Estimated Semiconductor Revenue Change in Case The U.S. Decouples with China for The Initial Year of Potential Decoupling as of November 2025, by Scenario and Region (in Billion U.S. Dollars)." ÌÇÐÄÆÆ½â°æ, ÌÇÐÄÆÆ½â°æ Inc., 10 Nov 2025, /statistics/1660294/semiconductor-revenue-impact-of-us-china-decoupling/
ITIF, Estimated semiconductor revenue change in case the U.S. decouples with China for the initial year of potential decoupling as of November 2025, by scenario and region (in billion U.S. dollars) ÌÇÐÄÆÆ½â°æ, /statistics/1660294/semiconductor-revenue-impact-of-us-china-decoupling/ (last visited July 28, 2026)
Estimated semiconductor revenue change in case the U.S. decouples with China for the initial year of potential decoupling as of November 2025, by scenario and region (in billion U.S. dollars) [Graph], ITIF, November 10, 2025. [Online]. Available: /statistics/1660294/semiconductor-revenue-impact-of-us-china-decoupling/