Nvidia H200 export scenario impact on chip production by region| ��ƽ��

Estimated distribution of AI compute production worldwide in 2026, by region and Nvidia H200 export scenario

Characteristic	U.S.	China (minimum based on Blackwells using FP4)	China (additional if Blackwells only use FP8)	U.S. partners
No U.S. data center AI chip exports to China and no smuggling	73%	1%	2%	24%
No U.S. data center AI chip exports to China and elastic supply; 4-5% U.S.-made AI chip smuggling	70%	6%	1%	23%
No U.S. data center AI chip exports to China and inelastic supply; 4-5% U.S.-made AI chip smuggling	70%	6%	1%	23%
Conservative H200 exports and elastic supply; China buys 9-14% of U.S.-made AI chips	63%	10%	6%	21%
Conservative H200 exports and inelastic supply; China buys 11-16% of U.S.-made AI chips	62%	12%	6%	20%
Baseline H200 exports and elastic supply; China buys 12-20% of U.S.-made AI chips	58%	13%	9%	20%
Baseline H200 exports and inelastic supply; China buys 17-25% of U.S.-made AI chips	56%	17%	9%	18%
Aggressive H200 and comparable chip exports and elastic supply; China buys 16-27% of U.S.-made AI chips	54%	16%	12%	18%
Aggressive H200 and comparable chip exports and inelastic supply; China buys 26-37% of U.S.-made AI chips	47%	26%	12%	16%

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Release date

December 2025

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Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

as of December 2025

Supplementary notes

The shares are based on 2026-produced AI compute measured in Nvidia B300 equivalents (FP8 performance).

The figures might not sum to 100% due to rounding.

The conservative scenario is based on Nvidia having the same share of its China revenue as before the 2022 chip export controls, being the leading exporter.

The baseline scenario is based on the assumption that companies from China follow a stockpiling strategy similar to semiconductor manufacturing equipment, with Nvidia being the leading exporter.

The aggressive scenario is based on the assumption that companies from China follow a stockpiling strategy similar to semiconductor manufacturing equipment, but it includes H200-comparable chips from all U.S. companies.

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After the U.S. government granted licenses for limited exports of Nvidia's advanced H200 artificial intelligence (AI) chips to China in January 2026, Chinese authorities approved their purchases in March 2026. Looking at the possible scenarios of H200 exports that were estimated in 2025. In general, the more H200 chips China buys from the U.S., the more it could further develop its own industry and increase its share in global chip production.

Under the baseline scenario assuming that China purchases 12 to 20 percent of U.S-made AI compute and Chinese companies follow a stockpiling strategy, the country's share in global chip production could range from 13 to 22 percent in 2026.