The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a weighted average of 85 indicators based on economic data covering production and income, employment, personal consumption, housing, manufacturing, trade sales, inventories, and orders.
The three-month moving average of the CFNAI is used to identify whether the economy is moving into or out of a recession.
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U.S. three-month moving average Chicago Fed National Activity Index 2021-2024
In September 2024, the three-month moving average of the Chicago Fed Activity Index (CFNAI-MA3) stood at for the United States. The CFNAI-MA3 is used to identify whether the economy is moving into or out of a recession. When the CFNAI-MA3 value stays below **** for at least *** months, it is a strong indicator that the country is moving into an economic recession. Adversely, if the index value is above *** for at least *** months, the country is likely moving away from, or out of, an economic recession.
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Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. (October 23, 2024). Three-month moving average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index of the United States from September 2021 to September 2024 [Graph]. In ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Retrieved August 08, 2026, from /statistics/1241487/us-three-month-average-chicago-fed-national-activity-index/
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. "Three-month moving average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index of the United States from September 2021 to September 2024." Chart. October 23, 2024. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Accessed August 08, 2026. /statistics/1241487/us-three-month-average-chicago-fed-national-activity-index/
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. (2024). Three-month moving average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index of the United States from September 2021 to September 2024. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc.. Accessed: August 08, 2026. /statistics/1241487/us-three-month-average-chicago-fed-national-activity-index/
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. "Three-month Moving Average of The Chicago Fed National Activity Index of The United States from September 2021 to September 2024." ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc., 23 Oct 2024, /statistics/1241487/us-three-month-average-chicago-fed-national-activity-index/
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Three-month moving average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index of the United States from September 2021 to September 2024 ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, /statistics/1241487/us-three-month-average-chicago-fed-national-activity-index/ (last visited August 08, 2026)
Three-month moving average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index of the United States from September 2021 to September 2024 [Graph], Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, October 23, 2024. [Online]. Available: /statistics/1241487/us-three-month-average-chicago-fed-national-activity-index/
