The source conducted an analysis based on six potential election scenarios, and puts states into three categories:
Likely Republican or Likely Democrat: states that appear firmly behind one candidate and are unlikely to change.
Lean Republican or Lean Democrat: states that appear to favor one candidate, but remain competitive.
Toss-up: the most competitive states that either candidate has a good chance to win.
Citation formats
Forecasted electoral votes earned by U.S. presidential candidates, by lean 2020
As of October 2020, it is forecasted that Democratic presidential candidate, former Vice President Joe Biden, will earn 279 electoral votes. 134 votes remained as a toss-up that either candidate could earn. Presidential candidates need to earn 270 Electoral College votes in order to win the presidency.
The 2020 Presidential election is set to take place on November 3, 2020.
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NPR. (October 30, 2020). Forecasted number of Electoral College votes earned by presidential candidates in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, by lean [Graph]. In ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Retrieved July 22, 2026, from /statistics/1126603/presidential-election-forecasted-electors/
NPR. "Forecasted number of Electoral College votes earned by presidential candidates in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, by lean." Chart. October 30, 2020. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Accessed July 22, 2026. /statistics/1126603/presidential-election-forecasted-electors/
NPR. (2020). Forecasted number of Electoral College votes earned by presidential candidates in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, by lean. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc.. Accessed: July 22, 2026. /statistics/1126603/presidential-election-forecasted-electors/
NPR. "Forecasted Number of Electoral College Votes Earned by Presidential Candidates in The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, by Lean." ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc., 30 Oct 2020, /statistics/1126603/presidential-election-forecasted-electors/
NPR, Forecasted number of Electoral College votes earned by presidential candidates in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, by lean ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, /statistics/1126603/presidential-election-forecasted-electors/ (last visited July 22, 2026)
Forecasted number of Electoral College votes earned by presidential candidates in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, by lean [Graph], NPR, October 30, 2020. [Online]. Available: /statistics/1126603/presidential-election-forecasted-electors/
