* The source defines the following scenarios:
Scenario 1 - "Nike swoosh- and W-shaped": Path 1: smooth capacity recovery with demand picking up but a slow rate growth;
Path 1a: smooth capacity recovery but then turning back down due to over-capacity.
Scenario 2 - "U- and L-shaped": Path 2: accelerated recovery;
Path 2a: slow recovery and sluggish demand.
Citation formats
Passenger change in the aviation industry by scenarios 2020-2022
In the fourth quarter of 2022, it is estimated that global air passenger traffic will have an increase of million passengers in an accelerated U- and L-shaped scenario due to the coronavirus outbreak.
For further information about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, please visit our dedicated Fact and Figures page.
Profit from the additional features of your individual account
Currently, you are using a shared account. To use individual functions (e.g., mark statistics as favourites, set
statistic alerts) please log in with your personal account.
If you are an admin, please authenticate by logging in again.
Learn more about how ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ can support your business.
ICAO. (March 8, 2022). Air passenger traffic change due coronavirus (COVID-19) from Q1 2020 to Q4 2022, by scenario (in millions)* [Graph]. In ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Retrieved July 30, 2026, from /statistics/1106470/effects-coronavirus-aviation-industry-passenger-loss-country-scenario/
ICAO. "Air passenger traffic change due coronavirus (COVID-19) from Q1 2020 to Q4 2022, by scenario (in millions)*." Chart. March 8, 2022. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Accessed July 30, 2026. /statistics/1106470/effects-coronavirus-aviation-industry-passenger-loss-country-scenario/
ICAO. (2022). Air passenger traffic change due coronavirus (COVID-19) from Q1 2020 to Q4 2022, by scenario (in millions)*. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc.. Accessed: July 30, 2026. /statistics/1106470/effects-coronavirus-aviation-industry-passenger-loss-country-scenario/
ICAO. "Air Passenger Traffic Change Due Coronavirus (Covid-19) from Q1 2020 to Q4 2022, by Scenario (in Millions)*." ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc., 8 Mar 2022, /statistics/1106470/effects-coronavirus-aviation-industry-passenger-loss-country-scenario/
ICAO, Air passenger traffic change due coronavirus (COVID-19) from Q1 2020 to Q4 2022, by scenario (in millions)* ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, /statistics/1106470/effects-coronavirus-aviation-industry-passenger-loss-country-scenario/ (last visited July 30, 2026)
Air passenger traffic change due coronavirus (COVID-19) from Q1 2020 to Q4 2022, by scenario (in millions)* [Graph], ICAO, March 8, 2022. [Online]. Available: /statistics/1106470/effects-coronavirus-aviation-industry-passenger-loss-country-scenario/
