* Scenarios are defined by the source as follows:
RCP 2.6: Radiative forcing value in the year 2100 is 2.6 watts/m2. CO2- equivalent atmospheric concentration reaches 421 parts per million. Mean global temperature increases by 1°C over the base period.
RCP 4.5. Radiative forcing value in the year 2100 is 4.5 W/m2. CO2-equivalent atmospheric concentration reaches 538 parts per million. Mean global temperature
increases by 1.9°C over the base period.
RCP 6.0. Radiative forcing value in the year 2100 is 6.0 W/m2. CO2-equivalent atmospheric concentration reaches 670 parts per million. Mean global temperature increases by 2.4°C over the base period.
RCP 8.5. Radiative forcing value in the year 2100 is 8.5 W/m2. CO2-equivalent atmospheric concentration reaches 936 parts per million. Mean global temperature increases by 4.1°C over the base period.
Base period: 1986 to 2005
Citation formats
Impact on global economy due to climate change by scenario Q4 2048
Climate change is a phenomenon which has been evident since the Industrial Revolution and has progressed more quickly over the last decades. It has environmental, human health, social, political and economic implications worldwide. A forecast for the end of 2048 indicates that several countries globally would face a negative deviation from their baseline GDP. Based on this projection for **, Saudi Arabia is projected to experience a decrease of almost ** percent in its real GDP, in a scenario where global temperatures increase by *** degrees Celsius, compared to the period from 1986 to 2005.
Profit from the additional features of your individual account
Currently, you are using a shared account. To use individual functions (e.g., mark statistics as favourites, set
statistic alerts) please log in with your personal account.
If you are an admin, please authenticate by logging in again.
Learn more about how ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ can support your business.
Moody's. (July 9, 2019). Deviation of real GDP from baseline due to climate change in select countries worldwide by Q4 2048, by scenario* [Graph]. In ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Retrieved July 23, 2026, from /statistics/1033047/deviation-real-gdp-globally-climate-change-by-scenario/
Moody's. "Deviation of real GDP from baseline due to climate change in select countries worldwide by Q4 2048, by scenario*." Chart. July 9, 2019. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. Accessed July 23, 2026. /statistics/1033047/deviation-real-gdp-globally-climate-change-by-scenario/
Moody's. (2019). Deviation of real GDP from baseline due to climate change in select countries worldwide by Q4 2048, by scenario*. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ. ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc.. Accessed: July 23, 2026. /statistics/1033047/deviation-real-gdp-globally-climate-change-by-scenario/
Moody's. "Deviation of Real Gdp from Baseline Due to Climate Change in Select Countries Worldwide by Q4 2048, by Scenario*." ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ Inc., 9 Jul 2019, /statistics/1033047/deviation-real-gdp-globally-climate-change-by-scenario/
Moody's, Deviation of real GDP from baseline due to climate change in select countries worldwide by Q4 2048, by scenario* ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ, /statistics/1033047/deviation-real-gdp-globally-climate-change-by-scenario/ (last visited July 23, 2026)
Deviation of real GDP from baseline due to climate change in select countries worldwide by Q4 2048, by scenario* [Graph], Moody's, July 9, 2019. [Online]. Available: /statistics/1033047/deviation-real-gdp-globally-climate-change-by-scenario/
