Following Donald Trump鈥檚 convincing 30-point win in last week鈥檚 Iowa caucuses and Ron DeSantis鈥 decision to drop out of the race and endorse the former president, it looks like Tuesday鈥檚 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire is Trump鈥檚 to lose.
According to the latest conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center on January 19, Trump holds 50 percent support among likely GOP voters in the state, leading his closest competitor and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley by 11 percentage points. Florida Gov. DeSantis stood at just 6 percent in the poll, which was conducted before he announced the end of his presidential bid on Sunday. Assuming that many of his supporters follow his endorsement and support Trump going forward, the former president鈥檚 lead could be even bigger than the latest poll indicates.
If the results from New Hampshire actually go Trump鈥檚 way, he would be the first non-incumbent Republican candidate to win in Iowa and New Hampshire, two states often considered crucial in the presidential primaries as they host the first contests in the nomination process. Winning in Iowa and/or New Hampshire can make or break a candidate鈥檚 momentum and many presidential bids have hit an early wall in either of the two states.
As our chart shows, the majority of Democratic and Republican candidates who won in Iowa and/or New Hampshire went on to win their party鈥檚 presidential ticket. Since 1972, 9 out of 13 Democratic winners in the Iowa caucuses won the nomination, while 7 out of 12 Republican winners did the same. New Hampshire appears to be even more decisive in the race for the Republican candidacy, as 11 out of 13 Republican winners in the state鈥檚 primary elections won the nomination since 1972. For Democratic candidates, the New Hampshire results aren鈥檛 quite as important, with 鈥渏ust鈥 7 out of 13 winners ending up winning the Democratic nomination.
