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Electric vehicles in Germany: A scenario-based approach to the potential impact of EVs on transport emissions

ÌÇÐÄÆƽâ°æ trend report on the potential impact of electric vehicles on transport emissions in Germany

The German government abruptly rolled back its subsidy program for battery-electric vehicles in December 2023, around a year after it cut back on the environmental bonus given for the purchase of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. In parallel, the federal government remained committed to its target of having 15 million battery-electric vehicles in circulation in Germany by 2030. Growing electric vehicle sales could contribute to the decarbonization of the country’s transport sector, which is the third-highest polluter behind the energy and industry sectors, and help Germany lower its environmental impact.

This report provides insights on the magnitude of this contribution through two scenarios. The business-as-usual scenario assumes a static market environment without involvement from the federal government or industry stakeholders. The exponential growth scenario, in contrast, assumes further intervention to boost electric vehicle adoption. The report also features a comprehensive overview of the current German electric vehicle market and analyses the factors impacting passenger car emissions.

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Table of contents

The electric vehicle status quo

  • Electric vehicle fleet
  • Electric vehicle sales
  • Market share by propulsion type
  • Consumer behavior
  • Environmental bonus
  • Charging stations

The greenhouse gas emissions status quo
  • German greenhouse gas emissions
  • Passenger car emissions
  • Lifetime car emissions
  • German electricity mix

Scenario-based electric vehicle and emissions forecasts
  • Electric vehicle sales forecast by scenario
  • Business-as-usual sales forecast
  • Exponential growth sales forecast
  • Direct plug-in hybrid electric vehicle emissions forecast by scenario
  • Transport sector greenhouse gas emissions forecast by scenario

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